LA Tech +23.5 2.2% play
I have actually done quite well backing this team in my career and have done so twice already this year. We took LA Tech +21 at LSU and LA Tech -10.5 winner over UTSA back on 10/13. They are 21-7 ATS as a road dog, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the SEC. This is a big sandwich game for Miss State who just beat a good Texas A&M team in misleading fashion, and have Alabama on deck. Last year they had the same spot, and hosted Umass as a 34 point dog, and they nearly lost the game holding on 34-23. Miss State has a history of poor play vs. group of play dating back to 2016 they lost at home to South Alabama 20-21, beat Umass by only 12, lost to BYU by 7, beat Samford by only 15, beat Miami Ohio by only 1, beat La Tech last year by 36, but that was at the beginning of the year.
Louisiana Tech has an extra day to prepare here, and have an excellent coach in Skip Holtz. I mentioned Miss State's victory last week was misleading. They scored 2 TD's on third and long, and picked Miss State in the end zone up 21-13, and scored on an 84 yard play. A&M as good as their defense has been is 129th in explosive plays allowed. Louisiana Tech's defense is 53rd, and that's mainly because they have a very good pass rush led by sack daddy Ferguson who should pass Terrel Suggs for the most sacks of all time (44) before the season is out. I expect a somewhat vanilla approach from Miss State in this game with Alabama on deck, and they are going up against a very good defense that ranks 37th in yards per play. Louisiana Tech's offense has struggled but they have faced a tough schedule, and the offense looked much better against LSU than MIss State did in their common opponent game.
